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March 01, 2008

Ultra Petroleum (UPL) added to the Conviction List.

I have decided to add an oil name to the conviction list:  Ultra Petroleum Corp (ticker symbol, UPL).   

Ultra Petroleum Corp. engages in the development, production, operation, exploration, and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties primarily in the Green River Basin, southwest Wyoming and Bohai Bay, offshore China. It primarily focuses on the development and expansion of a tight gas sand project located in the Green River Basin in southwest Wyoming. As of December 31, 2006, the company owned interests in approximately 79,566 net acres in Wyoming; and 124,591 net acres in Pennsylvania. Ultra Petroleum Corp. was founded in 1979 and is based in Houston, Texas. 

UPL announced earnings on Feb. 20th and they were steller! UPL reported Q4 EPS of 70c vs. consensus of 32c per share. They also reported Q4 revenues $162M vs. consensus estimates of $156M. Jefferies & Co. believes the company will likely raise 2008 production guidance.  Subsequently, the firm raised their target price from $80 to $88 and maintained a "Buy" rating on the stock.

Powerpoint slide put together by UPL execs discussing highlights can be found HERE.  More on UPL later...

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Conviction List

  • BUY Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS)
    Recent Px: $180
    12 Mo. Target Px: $230
    Goldman Sachs is a "best of breed" firm that prints money like no other on Wall Street. Trading at 9 times next years earning there is no reason to see this stock going lower than recent volatility has suggested. Recent earnings announcement surpassed analyst expectations. I would expect them to continue doing so. Buying in the 160s or lower would be a good buy.

    SELL Bear Stearns Corp. (ticker: BSC)
    Recent Px: $10
    12 Mo. Target Px: N/A
    JP Morgan got a heck of a deal and even felt bad about their initial offering price that they raised the bid from $2 to $10 per share. I guess it always possible that the deal falls apart and other outside bids are submitted but not without losing their building. Its a virtual lock at this point. Therefore, I think its time to look elsewhere.

    BUY Ultra Petroleum (ticker: UPL)
    Recent Px: $78
    12 Mo. Target Px: $100
    Ultra Petroleum's knack for oil and gas exploratory success makes this name a "must have" in the portfolio. This Houston-based firm has interests and business in Green River Basin, Wyoming, and offshore China.

    BUY iShares China 25 (ticker: FXI)
    Recent Px: $145
    12 Mo. Target Px: $175
    Chinese economist have forecasted a 11% growth in GDP for this year...and that comes on the heels of a slowing US economy. One word: "WOW!"

    BUY Dow Jones Ultra 200% Index (ticker: DDM)
    Recent Px: $70
    12 Mo. Target Px: $88
    Goldman superstar Abbey Cohen has predicted that the DJIA will see 14700 this year. With that logic and her call in mind, then consider using the 2:1 magnification etf that is based on the Dow's performance.

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