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March 31, 2008

Lehman to offer $3 billion convertible preferred shares

Lehman decided to raise some cash by issuing $3 billion in convertible preferred shares.  In an interview today: 

"We still maintain that we don't need capital, but we've realized that perception is the dominant issue in today's markets," the chief financial officer, Erin Callan, said in an interview. "This is an endorsement of our balance sheet by investors."

Lehman did not provide terms of the sale, which apparently is being priced tonight.  Price talk is for an interest rate of 7.05 to 7.5% and that the conversion premium would be approx 30% above the current stock price.  The preferred will be noncumulative, meaning the firm can skip dividends without much penalty if it runs into trouble. Lehman said it would be the "sole book-running manager" of the offering, but did not say if there was a syndicate behind it or if it was going to place the shares by itself, though the wording of its press release indicated the latter. 

At a minimum, I would say that this is a bit slightly alarming and should be viewed with caution by current LEH equity holders.  This, by the way, comes on the heels of Lehman saying it has plenty of liquidity - more than $90 billion of assets it holds in cash or fairly liquid assets.   

The stock sold off more than 2% after hours.  I would avoid the name at the moment and would expect to see analysts lowering EPS estimates in the near term.

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Conviction List

  • BUY Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS)
    Recent Px: $180
    12 Mo. Target Px: $230
    Goldman Sachs is a "best of breed" firm that prints money like no other on Wall Street. Trading at 9 times next years earning there is no reason to see this stock going lower than recent volatility has suggested. Recent earnings announcement surpassed analyst expectations. I would expect them to continue doing so. Buying in the 160s or lower would be a good buy.

    SELL Bear Stearns Corp. (ticker: BSC)
    Recent Px: $10
    12 Mo. Target Px: N/A
    JP Morgan got a heck of a deal and even felt bad about their initial offering price that they raised the bid from $2 to $10 per share. I guess it always possible that the deal falls apart and other outside bids are submitted but not without losing their building. Its a virtual lock at this point. Therefore, I think its time to look elsewhere.

    BUY Ultra Petroleum (ticker: UPL)
    Recent Px: $78
    12 Mo. Target Px: $100
    Ultra Petroleum's knack for oil and gas exploratory success makes this name a "must have" in the portfolio. This Houston-based firm has interests and business in Green River Basin, Wyoming, and offshore China.

    BUY iShares China 25 (ticker: FXI)
    Recent Px: $145
    12 Mo. Target Px: $175
    Chinese economist have forecasted a 11% growth in GDP for this year...and that comes on the heels of a slowing US economy. One word: "WOW!"

    BUY Dow Jones Ultra 200% Index (ticker: DDM)
    Recent Px: $70
    12 Mo. Target Px: $88
    Goldman superstar Abbey Cohen has predicted that the DJIA will see 14700 this year. With that logic and her call in mind, then consider using the 2:1 magnification etf that is based on the Dow's performance.

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