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March 24, 2008

JPM looks to raise BSC bid from $2 to $10.

Late tonight it has been revealed through anonymous sources that JPM and Bear are in negotiations to raise the bid price from $2 to $10 per share.  The renegotiation came about with JPM approaching BSC about upping the price on the sentiment that the deal will be rejected.  Apparently, he felt bad about the price - cognitive dissonance.

According to the New York Times...

"The Fed, which must approve any new deal, was balking at the new offer price on Sunday night after several days of frantic, secret negotiations, these people said. As a result, it was still possible the renegotiated deal might be postponed or collapse entirely, said these people, who were granted anonymity because of their confidentiality agreements.

If the Fed were to reject the new proposal, it could set off a furor among shareholders of both firms that the government was preventing them from making a fair deal."

In another strange twist, JPM is working the deal to ensure they can snare approx 39.5% of the outstanding shares from BSC that would give it nearly the 40% required by Delaware law to be considered the "majority".  This would give them the power to override challenges made by the largest shareholder, British billionaire financier Joe Lewis.

This comes on the heels of Mr Dimon apparently calling other Wall Street CEOs pleading with them not to hire away the BSC employees.

The drama continues....Personally, I think the deal prices goes up even more.  As I stated previously, I didn't think the deal would get done at $2.  And, honestly, I still don't think this is over yet.  In fact, if it doesn't get passed at $10 per share then is it possible that the deal falls apart completely. 

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Conviction List

  • BUY Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS)
    Recent Px: $180
    12 Mo. Target Px: $230
    Goldman Sachs is a "best of breed" firm that prints money like no other on Wall Street. Trading at 9 times next years earning there is no reason to see this stock going lower than recent volatility has suggested. Recent earnings announcement surpassed analyst expectations. I would expect them to continue doing so. Buying in the 160s or lower would be a good buy.

    SELL Bear Stearns Corp. (ticker: BSC)
    Recent Px: $10
    12 Mo. Target Px: N/A
    JP Morgan got a heck of a deal and even felt bad about their initial offering price that they raised the bid from $2 to $10 per share. I guess it always possible that the deal falls apart and other outside bids are submitted but not without losing their building. Its a virtual lock at this point. Therefore, I think its time to look elsewhere.

    BUY Ultra Petroleum (ticker: UPL)
    Recent Px: $78
    12 Mo. Target Px: $100
    Ultra Petroleum's knack for oil and gas exploratory success makes this name a "must have" in the portfolio. This Houston-based firm has interests and business in Green River Basin, Wyoming, and offshore China.

    BUY iShares China 25 (ticker: FXI)
    Recent Px: $145
    12 Mo. Target Px: $175
    Chinese economist have forecasted a 11% growth in GDP for this year...and that comes on the heels of a slowing US economy. One word: "WOW!"

    BUY Dow Jones Ultra 200% Index (ticker: DDM)
    Recent Px: $70
    12 Mo. Target Px: $88
    Goldman superstar Abbey Cohen has predicted that the DJIA will see 14700 this year. With that logic and her call in mind, then consider using the 2:1 magnification etf that is based on the Dow's performance.

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